We need to see the cause

"The fund-management industry claims that some people are extremely skilled, since year after year they have outperformed the market . They will identify these “geniuses” and convince you of their abilities. Every year you fire the losers, leaving only the winners, and thus end up with long-term steady winners. Since you do not observe the cemetery of failed investors, you will think that it is a good business, and that some operators are considerably better than others. Of course an explanation will be readily provided for the success of the lucky survivors: “He eats tofu, ” “She works late; just the other day I called her office at eight P.M. …” Or of course, “She is naturally lazy. People with that type of laziness can see things clearly. ” By the mechanism of retrospective determinism we will find the “cause”—actually, we need to see the cause."