You cannot ignore self-delusion

"You cannot ignore self-delusion. The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know. Lack of knowledge and delusion about the quality of your knowledge come together—the same process that makes you know less also makes you satisfied with your knowledge. Next , instead of the range of forecasts, we will concern ourselves with the accuracy of forecasts, i. e. , the ability to predict the number itself."