Consumer Power: The Case Of Vegetable Oil

Consumer Power: The Case Of Vegetable Oil

Each scenario incorporated data on projected population growth, which would also influence demand for oil. Projected growth in India, for instance, is likely to increase consumption by anywhere from 16 to 46 megatons per year over the next hundred years; on the other hand, China's population contraction could lead to decreases of as much as 6.8 megatons per year. Across all four focal countries, these projected changes could lead to increased requirements of 3 to ~13 megatons per year. This, in turn, would be associated with conversion of forest to cropland. Under the AE, croplands were projected to increase to 11.7 megahectares in 2040, then fall to 7.3 by 2100; under the RW and CS scenarios, land use would follow a similar peak-and-trough pattern, but at levels approximately 60% and 70% lower, respectively.

Take, for instance, the case of edible vegetable oil, the global consumption of which has increased sevenfold over the past three decades. Approximately one-third of this is palm and soybean oil that comes from the tropics. As the result of increasing demand for cooking oil in China, India, the EU, and the US, farms have had to expand markedly, tripling in Indonesia and Malaysia, and growing by a factor of 20 in Brazil and Argentina combined. Space for plantations is usually carved out of rain forests, leading to reductions in biodiversity and ecosystem health.